研究背景：苹果蠹蛾（鳞翅目：卷蛾科）是苹果、梨和核桃上世界性主要害虫。密歇根州开发的一个基于温度的苹果蠹蛾物候模型在北卡罗莱纳州（NC）和其他州已经利用了十几年。在北卡罗莱纳州利用该模型预测苹果蠹蛾的羽化期的系统误差表明蛾羽化与温度之间的关系在美国中西部和东南部存在差异，或者还有其他因素可能也影响该系统。
结果：开发了一种方法以完善世代历期的预测，即根据热量单位积累建立成虫羽化期的预测模型。基于该模型预测的苹果蠹蛾羽化期与利用在密歇根州开发的原有模型预测的羽化期存在着显著差异。
结论：一个用于预测北卡罗来纳州苹果蠹蛾的各代成虫羽化期的新模型改善了预测的准确率，对害虫管理具有现实意义。我们还调查了苹果蠹蛾敏感种群和抗性种群之间羽化期的差异，建议在未来羽化期物候学的研究中应该考虑害虫的抗药性。
毕美超 翻译，王勤英 校对
原文：Predicting codling moth (Cydia pomonella) phenology in North Carolina based on temperature and improved generation turnover estimates.
Pest Manag Sci. 2014 Dec 2;
Authors: Chappell TM, Kennedy GG, Walgenbach JF
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The codling moth, Cydia pomonella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), is major world-wide pest of apples, pears and walnuts. A temperature-driven phenological model of codling moth developed in Michigan has been utilized in North Carolina (NC) and other states for decades. Systematic inaccuracy of this model in predicting moth emergence in NC suggests that the relationship between emergence and temperature differs between the American midwest and southeast, or that additional factors may influence the system.
RESULTS: A method was developed to optimize the estimation of generation turnover intervals. Emergence was modeled as a function of heat unit accumulation. Significant differences between emergence predictions based on the resultant model, and an existing model developed in Michigan, were found.
CONCLUSION: A new model of codling moth emergence incorporating improved estimates for generation turnover for North Carolina offers predictive improvement with practical importance to management. Differences between the emergence of susceptible and resistant moth populations were also investigated, leading to the suggestion that resistance to insecticides should be considered in future studies of emergence phenology.
