研究背景：苹果蠹蛾（鳞翅目：卷蛾科）是苹果、梨和核桃上主要的世界性害虫。密歇根州开发的苹果蠹蛾基于温度的物候模型在北卡罗莱纳州（NC）和其他州已经利用了十几年。该模型在北卡罗莱纳州预测苹果蠹蛾成虫羽化的系统误差表明在美国中西部和东南部成虫羽化与温度之间的关系是不同的，或有其他因素可能影响该系统。
研究结果：研制出一种方法用于优化估计世代间隔时间。根据热量单位积累建立一个成虫羽化期的模型。基于该模型和一个在密歇根州开发的已有模型发现这两个模型预测的羽化期显著差异。
结论：一个结合了改进的估计世代间隔期的预测北卡罗来纳州苹果蠹蛾成虫羽化期的新模型提高了预测的准确率，对害虫的管理具有实践意义。此外，调查了敏感和抗性蛾种群之间羽化期的差异，建议在未来成虫羽化期的研究中应考虑该虫的抗药性。
毕美超 翻译；王勤英 校对
来源：
Predicting codling moth (Cydia pomonella) phenology in North Carolina based on temperature and improved generation turnover estimates.
Pest Manag Sci. 2014 Dec 2;
Authors: Chappell TM, Kennedy GG, Walgenbach JF
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The codling moth, Cydia pomonella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), is major world-wide pest of apples, pears and walnuts. A temperature-driven phenological model of codling moth developed in Michigan has been utilized in North Carolina (NC) and other states for decades. Systematic inaccuracy of this model in predicting moth emergence in NC suggests that the relationship between emergence and temperature differs between the American midwest and southeast, or that additional factors may influence the system.
RESULTS: A method was developed to optimize the estimation of generation turnover intervals. Emergence was modeled as a function of heat unit accumulation. Significant differences between emergence predictions based on the resultant model, and an existing model developed in Michigan, were found.
CONCLUSION: A new model of codling moth emergence incorporating improved estimates for generation turnover for North Carolina offers predictive improvement with practical importance to management. Differences between the emergence of susceptible and resistant moth populations were also investigated, leading to the suggestion that resistance to insecticides should be considered in future studies of emergence phenology.
